A STUDY OF MACROECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCES AND SECURITY RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAINS IN TIMES OF DISRUPTIONS

Background: The effect of macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances affects the safety of logistics chains in the environment of their operation. Determining the parameters of the security of the logistics chain in the period of disruption is considered an important economic problem due to the growing threats to the economic security of the country and, in particular, to the security of the logistics sector. Supply chains in Ukraine were initially disrupted due to the COVID pandemic and then the Russian invasion. These two major disruptions have had a significant impact on logistics in Ukraine, which is why this article aims to explore their impact on supply chain operations.

Methods: The research comprises four main components: a bibliometric analysis employing the systematic literature review method, a statistical analysis of key macroeconomic indicators affecting the logistics sector in Ukraine and the global economy, survey research involving participants in supply chains, and a conclusion drawn from the analyses, addressing risks for the security of the supply chain environment. The bibliometric analysis aims to understand research trends and developments in the field, while the statistical analysis provides insights into economic factors impacting supply chains. The survey research offers valuable input from supply chain participants, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of their experiences. Finally, the conclusion draws implications from the analyses, identifying potential risks and proposing measures to enhance supply chain resilience and security.

Results: The research results indicate that the disturbances analyzed not only affected the fluctuations of global GDP but also, with a certain delay, the global supply chains, indicating the deepening of differences in the logistics sector. Industries that rely on global logistics supply chains are found to be highly susceptible to changes in transformation flexibility and changes in the configuration of supply chain networks. It has been established that the consequences of the unrest in Ukraine have exacerbated the financial, humanitarian, food, energy, social, and value of life crisis. In terms of impact on the Ukrainian logistics sector, they have led, among others, to the weakening/breaking of logistic links, the lack of potential to fully use them during wartime, and the intensification of security threats.

Conclusions: Among the logistics requirements, the safety and self-preservation function has become the most important. Therefore, an important task during wartime is to develop security mechanisms that ensure durability and efficiency, as well as operational and integrated supply chains with high adaptability to disruptions.